post hoc ergo propter hoc

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Related to Coincidental correlation: Post hoc fallacy
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Noun1.post hoc ergo propter hoc - the logical fallacy of believing that temporal succession implies a causal relation
logical fallacy - a fallacy in logical argumentation
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From a theoretical perspective, they apparently did not see much that was novel, and wondered whether at least some of Bellwood's case studies might not be examples of the fallacy of coincidental correlation in the familiar form post hoc, ergo propter hoc.
Success developing advanced models will require teaming modelers with expert underwriters, actuaries and claims professionals who can distinguish meaningful causal relationships from coincidental correlations.