Time-slice rationality conflicts with two proposed principles of rationality, conditionalization
As for the diachronic constraint, it involves a probabilistic rule of inference given by a principle of conditionalization.
This is because if upon conditionalization a sentence is assigned a probability of 1 it will subsequently always be assigned a probability of 1, even though it makes sense for an agent to be able to rationally reduce their probability assignment to a claim from 1 to less than 1 when moving from certainty at an earlier time to uncertainty at a later time.
149- 174 (1996); Isaac Levi, Confirmational Conditionalization
, 75 J.
Given that the suppositional test is unsatisfactory, we are left without any justification for discriminating between Diachronic DBAs and ought to reject them all, including the DBA for Conditionalization
The key innovations are a revised conditionalization
rule and a principle relating models of the same story with different modeling languages.
Diachronic Dutch book arguments seem to support both conditionalization and Bas van Fraassen's Reflection principle.
The essay explains why the Dutch book for conditionalization reveals true incoherence, whereas the Dutch book for Reflection reveals only serf-doubt.
Justifying Conditionalization: Conditionalization Maximizes Expected Epistemic Utility, HILARY GREAVES and DAVID WALLACE
Bayesians can be challenged to provide a justification for their claim that conditionalization is recommended by rationality-whence the normative force of the injunction to conditionalize?
He calls them "epistemic syllogisms," and argues that they are involved in, for example, Newton's argument for the law of gravity and in the use of Bayesian conditionalization
Calibration and the Epistemological Role of Bayesian Conditionalization
, MARC LANGE