As an econometrician
by training, I think the ideal research would be to estimate a statistical model with the presidential rating as a main dependent variable, and having not only political/economic/social events but also the state of the people's personal wellbeing as independent factors.
Cochrane's advice is based on the perspective of what Hansen (2014) calls the "outside econometrician
," meaning someone whose actions do not influence the system he is trying to learn about.
Suppose an econometrician
has access to a sample of data from this DGP, but does not know the true form of the underlying model.
In fact, there is every reason to believe that a sophisticated econometrician
circa 1960 would have rejected Hall and Hart's regressions as spurious artifacts that, far from providing a 'challenge [to] the results as well as the policy implications of the Samuelson-Solow Phillips curve' (Hall and Hart 2012: 67), cannot be legitimately interpreted as bearing any usable economic interpretation.
In many countries, inequality starts in the labour market, and particularly in the distribution of wages and employment," according to Rosalia VazquezAlvarez, econometrician
and wage specialist at the ILO, also an author of the report.
The first econometrician
fired, but missed by a meter to the left.
Clever mathematicians build brilliant algorithms that hold up a great mirror to the past and in some cases can then build very accurate predictive models to allow us to best anticipate the future, but as any econometrician
will tell you, there isn't a formula And more importantly, written yet that can apply intelligent interpretation to information in the way a human brain can.
Basmann, "The Professional Responsibility of the Econometrician
for Truthfulness in the Teaching of Economics," in Educating Economists, eds.
This volume in the Advances in Econometrics series includes research papers on the theory and practice of econometrics related to or inspired by the work of Jerry Hausman, professor of economics at MIT and a noted econometrician
In a paper entitled "Investor Flows and the 2008 Boom/Bust in Oil Prices", Professor Kenneth Singleton - a highly respected econometrician
- mounted a wide- ranging assault on the belief among policymakers that speculation does
2009), "Economic Dissociative Identity Disorder: The Math Gamer, the Anti-Policy Econometrician
and the Narrative Political Economist", Econ Journal Watch 6(3): 364-373.
The effort to hold teachers and principals accountable--to reward or punish them based on their students' test scores--is premised on the attention-getting claim that the achievement gap between races and ethnic groups can be closed if students have five good teachers in a row (or three or four in a row, depending on which econometrician