The specific methodologies that Condorcet developed--a complicated calculus of probabilities
resembling modern "game theory"--is too complex and technical to enter into here, except to note its general ideological import.
For Condorcet the bridge linking empirical science to social planning was the "calculus of probabilities
." The decisions of the public servant using this would be informed by reason and mathematical insight rather than by chance.
that if we look at theories with the logical structure that Hume and Mill argue that they have, then it can be shown using the calculus of probabilities
that observational data tend to support not only low-level generalizations but also the higher-level generalizations, up to, and including, the principle of universal causation that, according to Hume and Mill, occupies the highest level" (p.
Because of his achievements in working out the calculus of probabilities
, he became the secretary of the French Academy of Sciences.
The idea that the calculus of probabilities
could be interpreted as a calculus of relative frequencies within suitable infinite sequences seems to have been due originally to John Venn, the author of Venn diagrams.
In the standard calculus of probabilities
, the probability of a hypothesis can range from "impossible" to "certain." The probability of a hypothesis is represented by real numbers.