Every structural bull market needs a good story, and for energy the tale that gets told every generation or so is that King Hubbert's peak
will soon be hit.
King Hubbert (of "Hubbert's Peak
" fame) did his foundational work in 1956 and predicted "peak oil" in the late 1960s.
Deffeyes, Hubbert's Peak
: The Impending World Oil Shortage (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2003); Richard Heinberg, The Party's Over: Oil, War, and the Fate of Industrial Societies (Gabriola, BC: New Society Publishers, 2003); and Stephen Leeb and Donna Leeb, The Oil Factor: Protect Yourself and Profit from the Coming Energy Crisis (New York: Warner Business Books, 2004).
To the Editor: The March 2014 article "Hubbert's Peak
, Mitchell's Boom" was interesting and informative, but also provocative.
(2001) Hubbert's Peak
, The Impending World Oil Shortage; (2005) Beyond Oil, The View From Hubbert's Peak
, the famous bellshaped graph depicting the rise and fall of American oil, is set to become Hubbert's Rollercoaster.
"Most analysts say we are either at the 50% point or within ten years of the 50% point, that is called Hubbert's Peak
, after that it is all downhill, meaning that prices will soar.
When "Hubbert's Peak
" seemed to come true in 1970--followed, three years later, by the crippling Arab oil embargo--the cranky old geologist was celebrated as a prophet.
It is illustrated with the Hubbert's peak
diagram, showing the blip of fossil-fuel production and consumption in its historic perspective, as a period of rapid population and industrial growth, one of the most abnormal phases in human history.
Then in the early 1970s, America reached its peak oil production of 10.2 million barrels per day (commonly referred to as Hubbert's Peak
) and since that time, domestic oil production has continued to decrease.
For the past year, US public attention has been focused on the global scale: global warming, the instability of large foreign oil suppliers, and the sudden rise in gas prices, a belated adjustment to Hubbert's Peak
. The recent US housing bust seems to be partly fed by Americans' lust for living in the "paradise" of car-dependent neighborhoods.
Deffeyes calls it in Beyond Oil." The View from Hubbert's Peak
(Hill and Wang, 2005).