inverted yield curve

(redirected from Inverted Yield Curves)
Also found in: Financial.
Related to Inverted Yield Curves: Flat Yield Curve, Normal Yield Curve

inverted yield curve

An unusual market condition in which long-term US Treasury bonds yield less than short-term US Treasury bonds. It is often regarded as an indicator of imminent recession.
Dictionary of Unfamiliar Words by Diagram Group Copyright © 2008 by Diagram Visual Information Limited
References in periodicals archive ?
Fourth, inverted yield curves have preceded post-war US recessions so the recent inversion can't be ignored.
"There is no recession in sight," White House economist Larry Kudlow insisted, after 1,500 points was wiped off the Dow Jones in recent weeks amid fear surrounding inverted yield curves that often precede a contraction in GDP.
Inverted yield curves have traditionally signified that recessions would follow within 12 to 18 months.
With pain fresh from the market downturn in the fourth quarter of 2018, it is understandable to be concerned and worried about what future markets may hold with what I have stated about inverted yield curves implying an impending recession.
The fund's positive performance amid emerging market headwinds - including four interest rate increases, inverted yield curves, and increased political pressure throughout the GCC - underscores the strength of Sico's forward-looking strategy and ability to pre-empt market volatility.
Inverted yield curves usually mean a recession is coming, although not immediately.
Inverted yield curves "correctly signaled all nine recessions since 1955 and had only one false positive, in the mid-1960s, when an inversion was followed by an economic slowdown but not an official recession."
He worried that the yield curve could be suggesting a sluggish pace of GDP growth ahead, and noted that the history of inverted yield curves is not positive.
To understand why, we need to understand inverted yield curves, hear the nuances in what was possibly Janet Yellen's final testimony before Congress last week, and remember that the Fed doesn't have to raise rates to tighten monetary conditions.
Usually when the inverted yield curves starts to rear its head, the consensus of opinion is that it is conceivable that the US economy could be heading into a recession though, for the moment, the confluence of data doesn't necessarily point in that direction.
Inverted yield curves in the US have traditionally predicted a recession within a window of six to 18 months.
The San Francisco Fed's research department argues that every recession in the past sixty years has been preceded by an inverted yield curve. Inverted yield curves have telegraphed all nine recessions since 1955 with only one false positive, in the mid-1960s.