TABLE 2 Lead times calculated by the maximum distance method for the longer and shorter leading indicators
The "leading indicators
" for America's future are flashing a warning of political and social turmoil, says the former governor of Colorado.
Others, the leading indicators
, project the economy's likely future course.
This study of cyclical indicators found: (1) the composite indexes contain more reliable turning point information than most of the individual indicators; (2) the Commerce Department's composite index would benefit by some component substitutions; (3) the ratio of the coincident to lagging indicators is more reliable in calling business cycle turning points than the composite of leading indicators
, but that ratio has a poor track record in calling growth cycles; and (4) most of the individual components of the composite index of leading indicators
signal growth cycle turning points better than business cycles turning points.
properties In addition to measuring the breadth of change, a second property often attributed to diffusion indexes is as leading indicators
for changes in aggregate levels.
If the prime mover view is valid, then measures of prime movers ought to make highly useful leading indicators
of economic activity.
Analysts also saw a solid 0.6% July rise for leading indicators
, after a big 0.5% June gain.
I try to pick just three to five data points that move left to right on the figure so that I can create a series of leading indicators
for my business.
The composite New Hampshire index of state leading indicators
, which is produced jointly by e-forecasting.com and NHBR, increased 0.2 percent in April after rising 0.1 percent in March.
Although the struggling local currency did cushion the effects of these weaker international prices, the export index still fell 7% year on year while the international trading environment remains volatile despite mild improvements in international leading indicators
The index of leading indicators
, which predicts developments in the coming several months, lost 2.6 points to 92.6.
However, the composite index of leading indicators
, the barometer for economic development, rose for the fifth month in a row, underscoring a solid upward trend, which may enable the business signal to turn into a yellow-blue light in February.