base rate fallacy

(Statistics) statistics the tendency, when making judgments of the probability with which an event will occur, to ignore the base rate and to concentrate on other information

Collins English Dictionary – Complete and Unabridged, 12th Edition 2014 © HarperCollins Publishers 1991, 1994, 1998, 2000, 2003, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2011, 2014

References in periodicals archive

The base rate fallacy occurs when the conditional probability of some hypothesis--that is, probability of some event (A), given the occurrence of some other event (B), is assessed without sufficiently taking into account the base rate for that event.

Avoiding cognitive biases that can jeopardize cost management success: are you proving your own hypotheses, overusing groups, displaying too much confidence, or worse?

Base Rate Fallacy is the tendency to ignore preexisting probabilities in calculating present or future probabilities.

Representation of odds in terms of frequencies reduces probability discounting

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