for earlier periods are developed as follows:
By contrast, the standard approach imposes mean reversion by using a stationary time series model to pad the series with forecasts and backcasts
In another two years, it will be lush and green, and the fly-fishers will be upset because they'll get their lines caught in the brush on their backcasts
The most surreal episode I ever observed of backcasts
gone awry occurred many years ago on an oceanside flat in the Florida Keys, where a buddy and I had staked out at the edge of a channel in hopes of casting to the schools of big tarpon that were known to cruise there.
We are dealing with unobserved variables here; it only makes sense that, with the passage of time, our backcasts
of potential output would differ significantly from our nowcasts.
t] series padded into the future and past using forecasts and backcasts
of the series.
2003) discuss, these revisions can be reduced through extending the time series with forecasts and backcasts
Remember, all backcasts
should end with the rod tip stopping at an upward angle.
Beginning fly-fishers can refine casting and presentation skills along shores of several lakes, including Baum Lake on Hat Creek and Manzanita Lake in Lassen Park, where awkward backcasts
won't get tangled in willows and a little luck will result in big trout.
These respondents also had much better knowledge of recent inflation dynamics, with average backcasts
of just 1.
To reduce revisions for recent periods, and improve inference at the end of the series, the observed series can be extended with forecasts, and backcasts
(see Kaiser and Maravall, 2001).
Many saltwater anglers also prefer the longer rods to avoid snagging the dunes on their backcasts