Nevertheless, it is fair to say that although he loved his characters, in his fiction and essays there are quirky misestimations
of programs and misappropriations of novelistic sympathy for some of his figures.
However, in the real world, the actuary may not be able to capture real longevity risk in pricing, mainly because of market competition (16) or misestimations
of the mortality pattern.
10) Although we can and should develop mechanisms for dispelling the most extreme misestimations, applying the concept of therapeutic misconception to rectify the perception of benefits transforms it from a tool for correcting falsehoods (such as that randomization is compatible with individualized assignment) to one that potentially antagonizes the research subject's worldviews.
Should anticipation of benefit or misestimation of risk and benefit be considered a component of the therapeutic misconception?
3) Since the second problem, the misestimations
of party support, is not unique to Quebec and has been the object of frequent analyses, although with different diagnostics, it will be examined first.
Through a dynamic known as the "availability heuristic," individuals are thought to base estimates of the probability of particular events (of, say, nuclear accident or groundwater contamination by toxic wastes) on the salience of particular instances of them--a cognitive process that often leads to significant misestimations
of the true probability of those events.
There have been very significant misestimations
using "quick and dirty" methods.
Students of politics have given a somewhat greater role, however, to the ways in which action stems from coalitions bound together by traditional allegiances and rules, from conflict stimulated by misestimations
, misperceptions, and emotions of anger and shame, from the happenstance of attention allocation in a world of scarce attention resources, and from the framing of political encounter by the constraints of ideology and history.
However, restricting ourselves to misestimations
by two or more quintiles, we obtain a slight bias toward rating "too inexpensive" (13.
Shorter development periods appear to be sufficient when trying to detect statistically significant misestimations
of the original reserve across a sample of insurers.