Fighting there may not produce as many hardened mujahideen eager to export jihad as did the struggle against the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan."It is not obvious now how many Iraqi jihadists will support the global jihad of Bin Laden and how many will focus their efforts on Iraq's fledgling state," says a recent analysis of the evolving terrorist threat by the Center for Strategic and International Studies.The leak of a National Intelligence Estimate
on terrorism trends to The New York Times, and President Bush's subsequent move to declassify the NIE's key judgments, has focused new attention on the relationship between the war in Iraq and global jihad.One NIE conclusion is that US involvement in Iraq has served as a recruiting sergeant for Islamist terrorism.
The classified assessment of the war's impact on terrorism came in a National Intelligence Estimate
that represents a consensus view of the 16 disparate spy services inside government, an intelligence official said yesterday.
Included are speeches by President Bush, UN Security Council 1441, the unclassified version October 2001 National Intelligence Estimate
, Secretary of State Powell's now widely-ridiculed address to the UN Security Council, UNMOVIC and IAEA reports on pre-invasion inspections, and post-invasion reports from US weapons hunters David Kay and Charles Duelfer.
Bush dismissed the prediction by the National Intelligence Estimate
saying its authors were "just guessing".
Not only had the CIA informed the administration of the mutual antipathy between bin Laden and Hussein, but before the war the Bush administration's National Intelligence Estimate
of October 2002, the most authoritative U.S.
The intelligence community's consensus view on the status of the Syrian chemical-weapons program was derived from a National Intelligence Estimate
(NIE) completed late last year and hurriedly updated this past summer to reflect the suspected use of chemical weapons against rebels and civilians.
According to the Telegraph, two former US officials said the administration is preparing a new National Intelligence Estimate
that, when complete, is expected to detail the cyberthreat, particularly from China.
Following the US National Intelligence Estimate
(NIE) and similar reports by the former IAEA head, Mohamed ElBaradei - including a report in November 2007 and the other one in February 2008 - which praised Iran's truthfulness about key aspects of its past nuclear activities and announced settlement of outstanding issues with Tehran, US and Israeli efforts to impose further sanctions or launch military attack on Iran seemed to be completely irrational and lost international support, even in the West.
A 2007 US National Intelligence Estimate
(NIE)--a document on the jointly agreed interpretations of all 16 US intelligence agencies--concluded that Iran had a weapons program that it put on hold in 2003.
The May 2009 National Intelligence Estimate
deemed Tehran unlikely to have a long-range missile until between 2015 and 2020, U.S.
The Israeli government has repeatedly accused Iran of developing nuclear weapons, though the most recent US National Intelligence Estimate
says Iran has not had such a program in many years and the IAEA has repeatedly certified that Iran is not diverting any of its uranium to any use other than its nuclear energy program.
He reminds us that the 2004 report of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence said that inferences made by the intelligence in the National Intelligence Estimate
(NIE) of October 2002 inflated the information estimate or did not support it with evidence.